Parity In The AFC: Playoffs or Pretenders?

Heading into Week 11 of the NFL season it’s becoming clear that the playoff picture for the AFC is going to be crowded. Every team in the conference has 4+ wins outside of the Patriots and Titans, meaning everyone is around or above .500. this is great for both the league and the fan as it provides a better week in and week out product. 14 teams is not allowed in the playoffs per conference though, so who is going to get the short end of the stick? There’s a chance we see an entire division go into the playoffs this year, so let’s see who is playing over their heads and who’s bound to get hot at the right moment.

            The Playoff Locks

Three teams in the AFC standout as surefire playoff powerhouses; the Kansas City Chiefs (duh), Baltimore Ravens, and Miami Dolphins. KC is always in the mix for best team in the NFL thanks to the trio of Mahomes, Kelce, and Chris Jones. It doesn’t hurt to have future Hall of Fame Head Coach Andy Reid leading this team through a weaker than expected AFC West. Sitting at 7-2 with a 5-1 record against the AFC, there’s no doubt they’ll be playing past week 18. Baltimore is 7-3 in a super competitive AFC North, where every team is above .500. Fronting their push this season is a defense that ranks second in total defense, second in yards per play at 4.1, second against the pass and fourth in points per game. There’s simply no holes on this defense and having Lamar Jackson healthy and surrounded with weapons in Harbaugh’s offense, this Baltimore team is formidable. Miami is coming off a bye week where they got back huge pieces from IR in Terron Armstead, Connor Williams and rookie standout Devon Achane. With Jalen Ramsey healthy and active in Vic Fangio’s system, this defense has potential to round into shape with Holland deep and the scary duo of Chubb and Phillips attacking QB’s. Their offense is first in points per game, yards per game, and passing yards per game, and third in rushing yards per game. Averaging 31.7 points per week, this offense is historically good and is getting a better defense every game. Their remaining schedule could be fairly winnable, especially if Buffalo keeps falling.

Strong Playoff Odds

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of my least favorite teams in the NFL. Sure, they’re 6-3, but they have a +6 point differential in a mediocre at best division. They’re 19th in the league in yards per game and Trevor Lawrence has been very pedestrian this year. Their defense is as mediocre as their offense and the roster lacks the eye catching names a playoff team should have. Doug Pederson is a coach of the year candidate, however, and at 6-3, the Jags are in a strong spot to make the playoffs. Cincinnati is currently last in the AFC North but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re weak. They started the season extremely slow with Joe Burrow coming off Training Camp injury scares but have found a groove lately. They grade out as average on all facets of offense and they have a super unreliable defense, yet they could continue to surge if Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase keep playing like they have. Tonight’s game against Baltimore is a huge indicator of what they’re made of. The Houston Texans have been a pleasant surprise this year under rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans and #2 overall pick CJ Stroud. Stroud has been the ROY hands down and has thrown his name into the MVP discussion with Houston 2nd in the league in pass yards per game. Their defense leaves a lot to be desired but they’re young and Ryans is a defensive guru so there’s reason for optimism. Don’t be surprised if they hurdle Jacksonville in the standings. The Cleveland Browns just got news this week that QB Deshaun Watson is out for the season, but that shouldn’t scream panic as Cleveland is 6-3 with him underperforming and All-Pro Nick Chubb out with a gruesome knee injury. The story with the Browns is defense as they lead the league in yards allowed per game, passing yards per game, 7th in rushing and 6th in points per game. Their defense revolves around Myles Garrett who seems like a Hall of Famer surefire. If this defense keeps pace, they should make the playoffs despite treading water offensively.

The Tossups

The Buffalo Bills are bizarre. They came into the season with Super Bowl aspirations, yet here they are at 5-5 and coming off a brutal game against the Broncos on primetime that lead to OC Ken Dorsey being fired. Josh Allen leads the league in picks over the last five years and doesn’t seem to be improving on that anytime soon. Stefon Diggs may want out soon and the locker room seems a mess. Their defense is 5th in points allowed per game but that could regress as their pass and rush grade out as average. Could a new offensive scheme come into play for the rest of the season? Possibly. It may just be too little too late as they’re record doesn’t pop in a tight playoff picture and a regular season wrap up in Miami could be a finishing blow. Pittsburgh is 6-3 and 2-0 in their division yet a fall off could be in the future. Can a team be outgained in every single game and still make the playoffs? It seems like an uphill battle with this offense under Matt Canada, who is putting an offense on the field that ranks alongside the bottom five teams in the entire league. Is Kenny Pickett the answer at QB following the Big Ben years? He doesn’t turn the ball over but he doesn’t perform like an NFL starter until it’s crunch time. Their defense is decent, giving up 20 points a game, but they’re bottom ten across yardage categories. Even though they’re 6-3, a tough AFC North and mediocre roster could lead to a fall off.

            Outside Looking In

The poor New York Jets, man. Headed right into week 1 with Super Bowl aspirations for the first time in forever just for Aaron Rodgers to go down for the season on the first set of offensive downs. At that moment, the season was over. Sure, they’re defense is phenomenal and definitely the backbone of a playoff stalwart, but Zach Wilson is a serious problem. He has the worst touchdown percentage ALL TIME. It doesn’t matter how good this defense is, you can’t win with Wilson under center. With Rodgers coming off injury and 40 years old with an insane cap hit, the Jets could be looking at a tough offseason. Indy has been fun this year. The Colts are 5-5 and riding Minshew Mania to some wins but this defense leaves a lot to be desired. They’re run game is going to keep them in some games but there’s simply better teams in the AFC. Rounding out the rest of the conference is the West outside of the Chiefs. The Raiders looked like they were dead in the water three weeks ago until the front office cleaned house on the coaching staff. Under interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas looks like a new team. The locker room enjoys the game again and its fun to watch their recent post game interviews. They have some outstanding skill players but Aidan O’Connell just isn’t the guy to take this offense into the playoffs. The Chargers are the definition of mediocre. At 4-5 with a +24 point differential and a losing record at home, they’re going to watch the playoffs from the couch. They have a plethora of skilled players on this roster and are great for fantasy points but their 4 wins at this point of this season is too tough to overcome. Lastly there’s the Denver Broncos who are finally starting to ride. Their -52 point diff is a little skewed after giving up 70 in week 3 to Miami, but just like the Chargers their record is going to be too much to work with. Their defense is dead last in the league in yards per game despite having a top 3 corner in Pat Surtain II and Justin Simmons patrolling at safety. Could they be traded in the offseason or are Russell Wilson and Sean Payton doing enough in the second half of the season to keep the band together?